Adley Rutschman AL Rookie of the Year Odds

The Baltimore Orioles appear to have hit the jackpot with their 2019 first-overall draft pick Adley Rutschman.

After starting the season 16-24, the Orioles have gone 47-34 since Rutschman was called up on May 21 and are right in the thick of a tight wild card race in the American League.

Just a month ago, Rutschman’s odds to win the AL Rookie of the Year were hovering around the +4500 mark.

Now, with 41 games left on the Birds’ schedule, the catcher has catapulted to between +275 and +300 and has the second shortest odds in what appears to be a two-horse race.

Julio Rodriguez is still the consensus favorite across the board, but can Rutschman continue his meteoric rise and unseat him before the season’s end? Let’s take a look at the sports betting odds.

Adley Rutschman Rookie of the Year Odds

Julio Rodriguez, SEA-350-350-385-400
Adley Rutschman, BAL+280+275+300+300
Bobby Witt Jr., KC+4200+3500+4000+3000
Jeremy Pena, HOU+4200+4000+4000+3000
Steven Kwan, CLE+6500+6000+4000+4000
Jose Miranda, MIN+8500+8000+6600+8000

Rutschman vs. Rodriguez by the numbers

Rodriguez got a head start in this year’s rookie race and has racked up 32 more games than Rutschman. But despite his late start, the Orioles’ catcher has made up some serious ground on what looked like a runaway winner in Rodriguez.

In 73 games this season, Rutschman has hit .259 with eight home runs and 25 RBIs. In comparison, Rodriguez is hitting .274 with 19 home runs and 63 RBIs. While J-Rod does have the edge when it comes to pop with 19 dingers, those numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Beyond the Home Runs

Rutschman owns the higher OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) of the two sluggers with .822 compared to .802. He also has an elite eye at the plate, walking more and striking out less than Rodriguez.

The Oregon native has a 17.8% strikeout rate, which is 4.5% better than the league average of 22.3%. He also walks 13.5% of the time, a whopping 5.3% higher than the MLB average of 8.2%.

On the other hand, Rodriguez has a 26.7% K rate (4.4% higher than the league average) and a 6.5% BB rate (1.7% lower than the league average).

But perhaps the most eye-opening stat is that Rutschman has a slightly higher WAR (3.6) than Rodriguez (3.5), according to FanGraphs.

FanGraphs’ WAR (Wins Above Replacement) does reward more games played, and despite that, Rutschman still comes out on top in the category because of his elite play.

Both players have had stellar seasons and have their teams in position to make the postseason. With a quarter of the season remaining, if Rutschman keeps up his torrid pace, it should make for a tough decision for Rookie of the Year voting at the end of the year.

Maryland is aiming to launch online sportsbooks by the Super Bowl, but for now, sports bets can be placed in person at five casinos and Bingo World in Baltimore.

AP Photo/Stephen Brashear

About the Author

Ryan Hagen

Ryan Hagen is a freelance writer for Maryland Sharp. He’s spent most of his career writing in roles that have ranged from copywriter at a boutique ad agency to corporate communications at a large oil firm. His true passion is sports, and he’s now been writing in the sports gaming industry for the last couple of years. He enjoys sports betting and usually bets a little too much when he loses and not quite enough when he wins.