With liability in its futures pools, SuperBook USA is on the high end of the Washington Football Team betting market, listing them as co-favorites to win the NFC East and at relatively short prices to win Super Bowl XLI and the NFC.
In fact, Washington was alone atop the SuperBook’s NFC East oddsboard until a recent adjustment priced the Football Team equally with the Dallas Cowboys, at +180 to finish first in the group.
Most sportsbooks have Dallas as the division chalk. For bettors who believe in Ron Rivera’s men, Caesars Sportsbook‘s +225 is the best price we’re seeing on the WFT to win the East.
With the exception of the New England Patriots (on whom the shop wrote a $20,000 bet to win the Super Bowl at 40/1 odds), Washington represents the largest Super Bowl liability at the SuperBook, Ed Salmons, vice president of risk, told Maryland Sharp.
“We’ve had a ton of Washington action as far as our season wins, to win the division, win the Super Bowl,” Salmons said.
Concern about Dak Prescott’s shoulder injury was a factor in the SuperBook downgrading the Cowboys, but the quarterback looks good to go for the NFL season opener Thursday night in Tampa.
Still, the oddsmaking team at the SuperBook is dubious on Dallas.
“Let’s put it this way – we don’t exactly trust Mike McCarthy as a good coach,” Salmons said.
From The Minds Of Bettors
Count professional gambler Mark DeRosa – who’s had plenty of success betting futures – among those who see Washington as a live longshot this season. DeRosa said in a DM that he has a position on the Football Team to win the NFC at 35/1 and 30/1, plays that look like nice value based on where the odds sit a few days before kickoff.
|To win Super Bowl XLI||30/1||50/1||50/1||50/1|
|To win NFC||15/1||25/1||22/1||24/1|
|To make playoffs||Yes +120, No -140||Yes +175, No -140||Yes +175, No -135||Yes +156, No -190|
|Regular-season win total||8.5 (over -130, under +110)||8.5 (-110)||9 (over +100, under -120)||8.5 (over -115, under -105)|
Jim Sannes, a quantitative betting and fantasy analyst at numberFire, though, is leaning chalk in NFC East futures.
Washington has “become a bit overvalued in the divisional market, which means I would be interested in taking the Cowboys,” Sannes said. “…. I think that the optimism around Washington has pushed (Dallas’ odds to win the division) down enough where I would say take the Cowboys.”
A Strategy To Consider
Washington’s early- to mid-season schedule is daunting: Week 3 at the Bills, Week 5 vs. the Saints, Week 6 vs. the Chiefs, Week 7 at the Packers, Week 10 vs. the Bucs, Week 12 vs. the Seahawks.
While this may cause heartburn for Football Team futures bettors, it also may create opportunity for value late in the season for those believing the team can weather the storm. Washington’s regular season closes with five straight divisional games, so it will have the chance to gain ground against NFC East opponents.
“Washington’s a team I want to watch,” sports betting media personality Todd Fuhrman told Maryland Sharp. “I don’t think there’s a lot of wiggle room as far as their win total’s concerned early on, but I do think given their schedule is extremely front-loaded, that you’re going to get some opportunity to get them at slightly better prices if they struggle out of the gates.”
The five-game closing stretch “could give them a chance to make up a little bit of hay,” Fuhrman added. “So I’m not as bullish on Washington as some folks are, but I’d be foolish to argue against the merits of that defense and an offense that has a lot of skill-position talent, when you talk about the likes of (Terry) McLaurin, (Antonio) Gibson, and then adding Curtis Samuel.”